Sunday, January 8, 2017

Russia Planning For Stable Budget If Oil ≥ $40

They'd better, one of the two sovereign wealth funds, the Reserve Fund, is on track to be drained by the end of this year and there was talk of dipping into the other, the National Wellbeing (Welfare) fund for non-programmatic purposes. Here's the Finance Ministry page on the balances.

Central bank governor Nabiullina had drawn up plans for dealing with three years of $35 oil in December 2015, mainly dependent on weakening the ruble with BankAmerica seeing 210 to the dollar if oil had stayed at $25 for any appreciable length of time. Currently 59.4980 -0.1261.

Additionally Russia had tested the Eurobond market last May by issuing a small ($1.75 billion) 10-year at 4.75% to gauge receptivity. It was the first offering since sanctions were imposed.
Probably more than you wanted to know but I may be referring back to this stuff.

From TASS:

Russia’s budget to be stable when oil prices are $40 per barrel
MOSCOW, January 9. /TASS/. Russia’s budget for 2017-2019 based on an oil price of 40 U.S. dollars per barrel will be stable and there will be no need to increase taxes, Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin said in an interview with the Kommersant daily.

"The approved three-year budget demonstrates that under the conservative scenario for the next three years with oil prices of 40 U.S. dollars per barrel public finance will be stable without extra tax burden. The key task of the economic policy is not in trying to guess about the situation on oil markets but in having a clear set of steps in case of any, even the most uneasy, external conditions," he said, adding that under the current oil prices of 54 U.S. dollars per barrel the country’s budget is well ready for the scenario based on 40 U.S. dollars per barrel.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said earlier that the overall tax burden level of 32% of GDP is enough to ensure a balanced budget.

Russia is not planning to raise taxes till 2018. The year 2017 will see a discussion on Russia’s tax system, as announced by the head of state.

According to First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, it is planned to decide on possible adjustment for the next political cycle by the spring of 2018.